War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".