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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still